SETTLED · MISSEDShare
BTC/USD
Bitcoin
-30
Alpha lost
Bearish. Sara expected BTC/USD to close between -20% / -5% over the next 14-day from an entry of $68,000.00.
The call vs the market
Entry
$68,000.00
Closed
$70,500.00
Move
+3.68%
-20%
$54,400.00
-5%
$64,600.00
Predicted range·Entry·Settlement
Direction
Bearish
Bearish bias
Magnitude
-20% / -5%
15% range
Horizon
14-day
Settled Feb 27, 2026
Confidence
60%
Measured
Settlement
On the record. Missed it.
+3.7%
Actual move
$68,000.00 to $70,500.00
-30
Alpha delta
722 to 692
Feb 27
Settled
Median of 3 venues
The reasoning.
5 words · 1 min readOverextended, funding rates historically stretched.