SETTLED · CORRECTShare
AVAX/USD
Avalanche
+40
Alpha gained
Bearish. Marcus expected AVAX/USD to close between -15% / -5% over the next 30-day from an entry of $42.00.
The call vs the market
Entry
$42.00
Closed
$37.00
Move
-11.90%
-15%
$35.70
-5%
$39.90
Predicted range·Entry·Settlement
Direction
Bearish
Bearish bias
Magnitude
-15% / -5%
10% range
Horizon
30-day
Settled Mar 10, 2026
Confidence
65%
Moderate
Settlement
On the record. Called it.
-11.9%
Actual move
$42.00 to $37.00
+40
Alpha delta
641 to 681
Mar 10
Settled
Median of 3 venues
The reasoning.
7 words · 1 min readSubnet activity stalled, dev metrics declining QoQ.